Demographic Change and Sustainability

We live in a unique demographic moment. The United Nations Secretary-General considers demographic shifts one of the most important megatrends defining progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Yet demographic situations vary greatly between and within countries and regions. Often, these diverse demographic situations lead to anxieties. This was similarly the case in the lead up to the ICPD 30 years ago. The resulting ICPD Programme of Action established the centrality of promoting the rights and choices of individuals over numerical population targets. At that time, the perceived threat of high fertility and “overpopulation” led to active debate on reproductive rights and choices. Today, a similar debate has emerged, this time around reproductive rights versus a perceived threat of population decline and (very) low fertility. Concerns about both “overpopulation” and “underpopulation” are fuelled by other global concerns, including climate change, pandemics, conflicts, mass displacement and economic uncertainty.

Some countries are concerned about rapid population growth; others worry about rapid decline. Some countries are alarmed by “too many” immigrants while others fear the consequences of rapid emigration. The perception of “too many” younger or older people is considered an existential crisis. These anxieties, in turn, link to fears for the future of institutions and systems impacted by demographic change: health, education and social services; pensions; labour and employment; urban development; economic growth; social cohesion and even defence.

In response to these anxieties, governments sometimes implement policies seeking “demographic solutions” to perceived “demographic problems”, pushing back against the values embodied in the ICPD Programme of Action. Examples include policies to raise or lower the fertility rate, or policies to restrict migration. Such a two-dimensional approach rarely succeeds. It often misses the point by not addressing underlying causes and simultaneously distracting leaders from preparing and adapting for approaching demographic futures.

Starting from a high-level overview of population trends and projections, this paper unpacks key intersections between future demographics and other megatrends, including ageing, migration, urbanization and climate mobility. It features experts imagining “better or worse” scenarios in relation to ageing, migration and climate change, and highlights policy scenarios consistent with the vision, values and principles of the ICPD in collectively preparing for the future.

The paper illustrates how the vision, principles and objectives of the ICPD Programme of Action are as vital today as they were 30 years ago. Endorsed by 179 countries, the Programme of Action placed individuals at the heart of sustainable development. This paper highlights how this mandate can be reimagined to secure a world where regardless of demographic trends, people retain the right to decide on the number and timing of their children, both people and the planet can thrive, and societies are resilient to demographic change.