NASA’s Van Allen Probe A is expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere almost 14 years after launch. From 2012 to 2019, the spacecraft and its twin, Van Allen Probe B, flew through the Van Allen belts, rings of charged particles trapped by Earth’s magnetic field, to understand how particles were gained and lost. The belts shield Earth from cosmic radiation, solar storms, and the constantly streaming solar wind that are harmful to humans and can damage technology, so understanding them is important.
As of March 9, 2026, the U.S. Space Force predicted that the roughly 1,323-pound spacecraft will re-enter the atmosphere at approximately 7:45 p.m. EDT on March 10, 2026, with an uncertainty of +/- 24 hours. NASA expects most of the spacecraft to burn up as it travels through the atmosphere, but some components are expected to survive re-entry. The risk of harm coming to anyone on Earth is low — approximately 1 in 4,200. NASA and Space Force will continue to monitor the re-entry and update predictions.
Originally designed for a two-year mission, the Van Allen Probes A and B launched on Aug. 30, 2012, and gathered unprecedented data on Earth’s two permanent radiation belts — named for scientist James Van Allen — for almost seven years. NASA ended the mission after the two spacecraft ran out of fuel and were no longer able to orient themselves toward the Sun.
The Van Allen Probes were the first spacecraft designed to operate and gather scientific data for many years within the belts, a region around our planet where most spacecraft and astronaut missions minimize time in order to avoid damaging radiation.
The NASA mission, managed and operated by Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, made several major discoveries about how the radiation belts operate during its lifetime, including the first data showing the existence of a transient third radiation belt, which can form during times of intense solar activity.
When the mission ended in 2019, analysis found that the spacecraft would re-enter Earth’s atmosphere in 2034. However, those calculations were made before the current solar cycle, which has proven far more active than expected. In 2024, scientists confirmed the Sun had reached its solar maximum, triggering intense space weather events. These conditions increased atmospheric drag on the spacecraft beyond initial estimates, resulting in an earlier-than-expected re-entry.
Data from NASA’s Van Allen Probes mission still plays an important role in understanding space weather and its effects. By reviewing archived data from the mission, scientists study the radiation belts surrounding Earth, which are key to predicting how solar activity impacts satellites, astronauts, and even systems on Earth such as communications, navigation, and power grids. By observing these dynamic regions, the Van Allen Probes contributed to improving forecasts of space weather events and their potential consequences.
Van Allen Probe B, the twin of the re-entering spacecraft, is not expected to re-enter before 2030.
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