WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025-2029)
- 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed 2024 as the warmest on record
- 86% chance that at least one of next five years will be more than 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average
- 70% chance that 5-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5 °C
- Long-term warming (averaged over decades) remains below 1.5°C
- Arctic warming predicted to continue to outstrip global average
- Precipitation patterns have big regional variations
The WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025–2029) projects that global temperatures are expected to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, increasing climate risks and impacts on societies, economies and sustainable development.
The report forecasts that the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is predicted to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than the average over the years 1850-1900. There is an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (currently 2024). And there is an 86% chance that at least one year will be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level. The report does not give global predictions for individual years.
There is a forecast 70% chance that the five-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5°C, according to the report. This is up from 47% in last year’s report (for the 2024-2028 period) and up from 32% in the 2023 report for the 2023-2027 period. Every additional fraction of a degree of warming drives more harmful heatwaves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers, heating of the ocean, and rising sea levels.
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