\n\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\nAccording to the latest WMO Global Producing Centres forecasts, there is a 60% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions during March\u2013May 2026, compared with a 30% probability of La Ni\u00f1a continuing and a 10% chance of El Ni\u00f1o developing.<\/p>\nENSO-neutral conditions are the most likely outcome during April\u2013June (around 70% chance) and May\u2013July (around 60% chance). The chance of El Ni\u00f1o increases steadily from April\u2013June (around 30%) to May\u2013July (around 40%). The re-development of La Ni\u00f1a remains unlikely in the extended outlook. However, uncertainty is high at longer lead times, and forecasts made at this time of year tend to be less reliable.\u00a0<\/p>\nAccordingly, these probabilities should be interpreted as guidance and treated with caution, especially in light of the lower predictability characteristic of the boreal spring transition. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months and provide updated outlooks as needed.Factsheet: El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update (February 2026)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\nPress Release<\/h2>\n\n<\/p>\n\u0639\u0631\u0628\u064a<\/div>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\u4e2d\u6587<\/div>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\nEnglish<\/div>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\nFran\u00e7ais<\/div>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\u0420\u0443\u0441\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0439<\/div>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\nEspa\u00f1ol<\/div>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAbout the El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Updates series<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\nThe El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update\u00a0provides analysis of the current conditions and evolution of the status of the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation phenomenon.\u00a0These include detailed information on sea surface and subsurface temperature anomalies, atmospheric circulation, cloudiness and rainfall patterns. The Update is prepared through a collaborative effort between WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, with contributions from experts worldwide. The El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update is crucial for governments, humanitarian and disaster risk agencies, and policymakers to prepare for climate-related impacts and to provide guidance for meteorologists worldwide to refine regional predictions.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/p>\nMore about this series<\/div>\n<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\nOther editions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n \n \n <\/circle>\n <\/circle>\n <\/path>\n <\/g>\n \n \n <\/rect>\n <\/clippath>\n <\/defs>\n <\/svg><\/p><\/div>\n\n \n \n <\/circle>\n <\/circle>\n <\/path>\n <\/g>\n \n \n <\/rect>\n <\/clippath>\n <\/defs>\n <\/svg><\/p><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n <\/p>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n <\/span>\n Publication\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n 04 December 2025<\/span> <\/div>\nEl Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update (November 2025)<\/h2>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n <\/p>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n <\/span>\n Publication\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n 02 September 2025<\/span> <\/div>\nEl Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update (August 2025)<\/h2>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n <\/p>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n <\/span>\n Publication\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n 05 June 2025<\/span> <\/div>\nEl Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update (June 2025)<\/h2>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n<\/p>\nView all editions<\/div>\n<\/a><\/p><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n <\/p>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n <\/span>\n Publication\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n 04 December 2025<\/span> <\/div>\nEl Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update (November 2025)<\/h2>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n <\/p>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n <\/span>\n Publication\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n 02 September 2025<\/span> <\/div>\nEl Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update (August 2025)<\/h2>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n <\/p>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n <\/span>\n Publication\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n 05 June 2025<\/span> <\/div>\nEl Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update (June 2025)<\/h2>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n<\/p>\nView all editions<\/div>\n<\/a><\/p><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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