{"id":8714,"date":"2025-06-27T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-27T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/godshand.link\/ground_post\/calibrating-deterrence-disruptors-of-strategic-stability-on-natos-new-northern-flank\/"},"modified":"2025-06-27T12:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-06-27T12:00:00","slug":"calibrating-deterrence-disruptors-of-strategic-stability-on-natos-new-northern-flank","status":"publish","type":"ground_post","link":"https:\/\/godshand.link\/en_gb\/ground_post\/calibrating-deterrence-disruptors-of-strategic-stability-on-natos-new-northern-flank\/","title":{"rendered":"Calibrating Deterrence: Disruptors of Strategic Stability on NATO\u2019s New Northern Flank"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<section class=\"content column\">\n<div class=\"highlighted\">\n<div data-drupal-messages-fallback class=\"hidden\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>    <a target=\"_blank\" id=\"main-content\"><\/a><\/p>\n<div id=\"sipri-2016-breadcrumbs\" class=\"block block-system\">\n<nav role=\"navigation\" aria-labelledby=\"system-breadcrumb\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Breadcrumb<\/h2>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<span><br \/>\n          \t\t            \t\t<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sipri.org\/publications\/search\">Publications search<\/a><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span><\/p>\n<\/nav><\/div>\n<div id=\"sipri-2016-page-title\" class=\"block block-core\">\n<h1>\n<span>Calibrating Deterrence: Disruptors of Strategic Stability on NATO\u2019s New Northern Flank<\/span><br \/>\n<\/h1>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"views-element-container block block-views\" id=\"views-block-publications-block-4\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"js-view-dom-id-ec25820898bcaf99b4c75c61c07d7d3f37e68662443e80b93e9c8b8bd07c2ead\">\n<div class=\"views-row\">\n<div class=\"views-field views-field-field-image\">\n<div class=\"field-content\">  <img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sipri.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/publications_lareg\/public\/2026-03\/0326_calibrating_deterrence_cover_web.png?itok=suXi1EJ8\" width=\"290\" height=\"435\" alt=\"0326 Calibrating deterrence cover\"><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"views-field views-field-view\"><span class=\"field-content\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"js-view-dom-id-43b655448bc4e652ac97a27ed0ef8213f6e59d638042e3d79f902fec187102e6\">\n<p> <span class=\"_567 views-row\"><br \/>\n    <span class=\"views-field views-field-title\"><span class=\"field-content\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sipri.org\/about\/bios\/dr-barbara-kunz\" hreflang=\"en\">Dr Barbara Kunz<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>   <span class=\"_213 views-row\"><br \/>\n     and <span class=\"views-field views-field-title\"><span class=\"field-content\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sipri.org\/about\/bios\/aino-esser\" hreflang=\"en\">Aino Esser<\/a><\/span><\/span><br \/>\n  <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"views-field views-field-field-year-of-publication\">\n<div class=\"field-content\">March 2026<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"views-field views-field-field-publisher-loaction\">\n<div class=\"field-content\">Stockholm<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"views-field views-field-field-publisher-name\">\n<div class=\"field-content\">SIPRI<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"views-field views-field-field-doi\">\n<p class=\"field-content\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.55163\/AZHZ1650\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.55163\/AZHZ1650<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<div id=\"sipri-2016-content\" class=\"block block-system\">\n<div data-history-node-id=\"7696\" class=\"node node--type-publication node--view-mode-full ds-1col clearfix\">\n<div class=\"field-pdf-full-publication field--label-hidden\">\n<div class=\"field-items\">\n<div class=\"field-item button_style\">\n\t<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sipri.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2026-03\/0326_calibrating_deterrence.pdf\">DOWNLOAD FULL PUBLICATION<\/a>\n      <\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"body field--label-hidden\">\n<div class=\"field-items\">\n<div class=\"field-item\">\n<p class=\"text-align-justify\"><span>Geostrategic conditions on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization\u2019s (NATO) new northern flank have evolved considerably in recent years. Finland\u2019s and Sweden\u2019s accession to NATO, changes in force posture, and advances in military technology are all developments in the High North and the Arctic that could potentially impact strategic stability, both when it comes to arms race stability and crisis stability.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"text-align-justify\"><span>These developments warrant a fresh look at NATO\u2019s northern flank and an examination of what they mean for strategic stability. The aim of this paper is thus to inform readers about the various factors that might affect strategic stability in the High North and the Arctic.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sipri.org\/visualizations\/2026\/nordic-military-sites-accessible-usa-near-natos-land-border-russia\">Explore<\/a> the map of <span>Nordic military facilities and areas accessible to the USA under defence cooperation agreements near the Russian border.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"field-contents field--label-above\">\n<div class=\"label\">Table of contents<\/div>\n<div class=\"field-items\">\n<div class=\"field-item\">\n<p class=\"p1\">1.\u202fIntroduction<span class=\"Apple-tab-span\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">2.\u202fStrategic stability and its disruptors\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">3.\u202fGeographic scope and regional characteristics<span class=\"Apple-tab-span\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">4.\u202fMilitary capabilities as potential disruptors of strategic stability<span class=\"Apple-tab-span\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">5.\u202fMilitary activity as a potential disruptor of strategic stability<span class=\"Apple-tab-span\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">6.\u202fConclusions: Managing disruptors in the absence of dialogue<span class=\"Apple-tab-span\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<h3>ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S)\/EDITORS<\/h3>\n<div class=\"dynamic-block-fieldnode-commentary-about-the-authors field--label-hidden\">\n<div class=\"field-items\">\n<div class=\"field-item\">\n<div class=\"views-element-container\">\n<div class=\"js-view-dom-id-ec32c96c5c56e82441cb758236a96a28a1db1b5ae7e0e9c047b73bb43d3842f5\">\n<div class=\"views-row\">\n<div class=\"views-field views-field-field-image\">\n<div class=\"field-content\">  <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sipri.org\/about\/bios\/dr-barbara-kunz\" hreflang=\"en\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sipri.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/thumbnail\/public\/2023-10\/88673eff-a86d-45ae-b9c8-dccd724dd31b_1_201_a.jpeg?itok=0MYcAKrp\" width=\"100\" height=\"100\" alt=\"Barbara Kun\"><\/p>\n<p><\/a>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"views-field views-field-body\">\n<div class=\"field-content\"> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sipri.org\/about\/bios\/dr-barbara-kunz\" hreflang=\"en\">Dr Barbara Kunz<\/a> is a Senior Researcher and Director of the SIPRI European Security Programme.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"views-row\">\n<div class=\"views-field views-field-field-image\">\n<div class=\"field-content\">  <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sipri.org\/about\/bios\/aino-esser\" hreflang=\"en\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sipri.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/thumbnail\/public\/2025-01\/aino_esser_bw-1.jpg?itok=cB4wWyeN\" width=\"100\" height=\"100\" alt=\"Aino Esser\"><\/p>\n<p><\/a>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"views-field views-field-body\">\n<div class=\"field-content\"> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sipri.org\/about\/bios\/aino-esser\" hreflang=\"en\">Aino Esser<\/a> is a Research Assistant in the SIPRI European Security Programme.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" id=\"back-to-top\" href=\"#\" class=\"btn btn-primary btn-lg back-to-top\" role=\"button\" title=\"Click to return to the top of the page\" data-toggle=\"tooltip\" data-placement=\"left\"><br \/>\n<i class=\"fa fa-chevron-circle-up fa-4x\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i><\/a><br \/>\n  <\/section>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sipri.org\/publications\/2026\/other-publications\/calibrating-deterrence-disruptors-strategic-stability-natos-new-northern-flank?rand=6456\" target=\"_blank\">Source link <\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Breadcrumb Publications search Calibrating Deterrence: Disruptors of Strategic Stability on NATO\u2019s New Northern Flank Dr Barbara Kunz and Aino Esser March 2026 Stockholm SIPRI https:\/\/doi.org\/10.55163\/AZHZ1650 DOWNLOAD FULL PUBLICATION Geostrategic conditions on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization\u2019s (NATO) new northern flank have evolved considerably in recent years. Finland\u2019s and Sweden\u2019s accession to NATO, changes in force posture, and advances in military&hellip;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":99081,"featured_media":8715,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"tags":[2213,2214,2215,2217,2216,1500,1962,545],"ground_category":[315,317],"class_list":["post-8714","ground_post","type-ground_post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-calibrating","tag-deterrence","tag-disruptors","tag-flank","tag-natos","tag-northern","tag-stability","tag-strategic","ground_category-2-grounds-tribulation","ground_category-2-2-time-dispute"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.sipri.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2026-03\/0326_calibrating_deterrence_cover_web.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/godshand.link\/en_gb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ground_post\/8714","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/godshand.link\/en_gb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ground_post"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/godshand.link\/en_gb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/ground_post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/godshand.link\/en_gb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/99081"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/godshand.link\/en_gb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8714"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/godshand.link\/en_gb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ground_post\/8714\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/godshand.link\/en_gb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8715"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/godshand.link\/en_gb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8714"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/godshand.link\/en_gb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8714"},{"taxonomy":"ground_category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/godshand.link\/en_gb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ground_category?post=8714"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}