El Niño/La Niña Update (February 2024)
- El Niño peaked in December as one of five strongest on record
- El Niño and climate change fuel record temperatures and extreme events
- Global ocean temperatures are record high
- Early warnings and climate services save lives and livelihoods
The 2023-24 El Niño has peaked during November-January and is now gradually weakening. WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts indicate around a 60% chance of El Niño conditions persisting during March-May 2024, and around a 40% chance of transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions during March-May.
El Niño conditions then become increasingly unlikely, and there is around 80% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions for April-June. A possible transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña during June-August is suggested by some climate models, while the chance of El Niño persisting during June-August is low (around 10%). Due to the relatively low historical performance of long-range forecast models at this time of year, commonly known as the Northern Hemisphere “spring predictability barrier”, these ENSO forecasts should be interpreted with caution. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months and provide updated outlooks, as needed.
About the El Niño/La Niña Updates series
The El Niño/La Niña Update provides analysis of the current conditions and evolution of the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. These include detailed information on sea surface and subsurface temperature anomalies, atmospheric circulation, cloudiness and rainfall patterns. The Update is prepared through a collaborative effort between WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, with contributions from experts worldwide. The El Niño/La Niña Update is crucial for governments, humanitarian and disaster risk agencies, and policymakers to prepare for climate-related impacts and to provide guidance for meteorologists worldwide to refine regional predictions.
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