El Niño/La Niña Update (June 2025)
As of mid-May 2025, both oceanic and atmospheric indicators reflect ENSO-neutral conditions, with sea surface temperatures remaining close to average across the equatorial Pacific.
The latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction indicate that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are expected to remain close to average, with a 70% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions continuing and a 30% chance of La Niña conditions developing during the period June–August 2025. Forecasts for the period July-September 2025 suggest about 65% chance of continued ENSO-neutral conditions, with the chances of La Niña conditions slightly increasing to about 35%. The chance of El Niño developing is negligible during the forecast period (June to September). Considering the well-known ‘spring predictability barrier’, however, we note that the ENSO forecasts made at this time of the year have lower skill than those made during other periods. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months and provide updated outlooks, as needed.
About the El Niño/La Niña Updates series
The El Niño/La Niña Update provides analysis of the current conditions and evolution of the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. These include detailed information on sea surface and subsurface temperature anomalies, atmospheric circulation, cloudiness and rainfall patterns. The Update is prepared through a collaborative effort between WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, with contributions from experts worldwide. The El Niño/La Niña Update is crucial for governments, humanitarian and disaster risk agencies, and policymakers to prepare for climate-related impacts and to provide guidance for meteorologists worldwide to refine regional predictions.
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