El Niño/La Niña Update (November 2024)
- La Niña tends to have a short-lived cooling effect
- It does not reverse long-term human-induced global warming
- 2024 remains on track to be hottest year on record
- “Neutral” (neither El Niño nor La Niña) conditions currently prevail
- Seasonal forecasts inform climate-sensitive sectors
As of end-November 2024, ENSO-neutral conditions, which began in May 2024, persist in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures remain slightly below average across much of the central to eastern equatorial Pacific.
Latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres of Seasonal Prediction indicate that the sea surface temperatures are expected to decrease, with the chance of La Niña conditions developing more likely than not (55% chance) during December 2024 to February 2025 and January to March 2025, while the chance of continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions is slightly lower, estimated at 45%. If La Niña emerges, it may be a relatively short-lived event, as the chance of La Niña during February-April 2025 is estimated to decrease slightly to around 45%, with ENSO-neutral conditions possibly becoming dominant again, estimated at 55%. The chance of El Niño developing is negligible during the forecast period. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months and provide updated outlooks, as needed.
About the El Niño/La Niña Updates series
The El Niño/La Niña Update provides analysis of the current conditions and evolution of the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. These include detailed information on sea surface and subsurface temperature anomalies, atmospheric circulation, cloudiness and rainfall patterns. The Update is prepared through a collaborative effort between WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, with contributions from experts worldwide. The El Niño/La Niña Update is crucial for governments, humanitarian and disaster risk agencies, and policymakers to prepare for climate-related impacts and to provide guidance for meteorologists worldwide to refine regional predictions.
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