Bangladesh, Anticipatory Action: Impact evaluation

Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to flooding, with climate change expected to increase the frequency and severity of flood events, threatening food security, livelihoods and well-being. Anticipatory Action, or forecast-based financing, seeks to reduce negative humanitarian impacts by using credible forecasts to trigger assistance before a natural disaster reaches its peak.

To assess whether acting before floods is more effective than responding afterward, WFP’s Office of Evaluation, in partnership with the World Bank, conducted a randomized controlled trial comparing anticipatory cash transfers with two post-shock responses – one response approximately one month after the flood peak, and the second, two months after the flood peak (the standard emergency response). The evaluation finds clear evidence that providing cash assistance before floods peaked generated significant benefits compared with equivalent transfers delivered after the flood.

The findings contribute to global efforts to improve emergency response and build resilience through forecast-based anticipatory action.