Projected increase in acute food insecurity due to the Middle East conflict

The World Food Programme estimates the increase in acute hunger following the Middle East conflict, modelling the pass-through of the price surge in global energy markets to domestic prices. The price increases reduce access to food among households that could barely afford a minimal diet before the conflict. For the 53 countries with available data, the number of people facing acute hunger is projected to increase by 45 million—from a pre conflict baseline of 318 million—if the conflict continues through the second quarter of this year. Altogether, this means that up to 363 million people could become acutely food insecure in 2026.